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一周行业观察 |经济萧条时应该削减营销预算吗?

by 海纳互动 09 Aug 2022

Thoughts this week

 

经济萧条时应该削减营销预算吗?

前几天有个香港客户火急火燎地要削减广告预算,因为整体销售状况持续不理想。正好有外媒报道称,宝洁在2022财年第四季度大幅度削减了营销预算。广告业(尤其是其中的品牌广告)是顺周期行业——经济下行时,营销预算就会首当其冲被缩减。但是,遇事不决砍预算,真的对吗?

仔细看完宝洁的财报后,发现宝洁并没有“大幅度”削减营销预算,其广告开支成本(销售管理费用)占净收入的百分比下降,其实是因为销售成本占净收入的百分比上涨了10%,而销售成本上升主要是因为今年原材料价格的大幅度上涨。整个财年来看,总营业成本较去年增加将近50亿美元,销售管理费用较去年下降约2.5亿美元,再考虑到去年有疫情后的消费复苏。这个降幅真的算不上是“大幅度”砍掉营销预算,更像是优化营销结构、提高营销效率的结果。 

其实不少FMCG行业的公司,即便在经济萧条时,一般也不会做出大幅度砍掉营销预算的短视决策,反而会增加预算,一是为了在市场低迷时仍能占领用户心智,二是为了把现金流不好的竞争对手赶出市场。

回到开头说的这个香港客户,他们有一定的市场根基,营收和用户数都有所上涨,也没有现金流的压力,一刀切地砍掉营销预算并不是最优选项。把营销预算向数字广告、效果广告倾斜,可以在经济不确定性下获得更多的确定——像宝洁那样,把TV广告预算向OTT/CTV广告转移。

广告不光是“顺周期”行业,还有“后周期”特征:经济刚刚开始下行时,广告支出不会马上下降;经济复苏时,广告主也会观察一阵子市场情况,再纷纷加大广告预算——如果大家都等到那时再行动,获客成本就同原材料一样节节攀高了。

 

News this week

  • 搬起石头砸了自己的脚
    美国海关从6月底开始执行的《防止强迫维吾尔人劳动法》,让新疆生产的一种太阳能电池板关键原材料无法进入美国,进口商、供应商和海关人员正在积极钻研如何证明“没有强迫劳动”,毕竟新疆生产的这种原材料占到全球供应量的41%。

  • 奢侈品向上,消费向下
    中国奢侈品电商第一股寺库也被传跑路。寺库集团的财报显示,由于竞争加剧和消费收缩,2020年收入下降12%,2021年又下降接近50%,净亏损飙升5倍。而唯品会今年二季度净营收为245亿元,去年同期为296亿元,下跌17.23%。

  • TV eats Software
    Disney流媒体订阅用户达到2.21亿,刚刚超越了Netflix的2.207亿。在流媒体大战中,以Netflix、Hulu为代表的科技公司对阵以Disney为代表的好莱坞巨头,谁是流媒体视频的未来?

  • TikTok推出购物广告
    目前正在测试包括视频、目录列表,以及实时购物广告在内的三种购物广告形式,将开放该功能的地区有:英国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和越南。

 

Data this week

  • Apple隐私政策对Meta广告收入的影响
    翻了Meta 2020至今年Q2的财报,去年Q2起Meta广告收入的按季度增长开始放缓,到今年Q2出现下跌。有趣的是,增速明显放缓的时间(2021年Q2)与苹果调整隐私政策的时间很吻合。

 

Ideas this week

  • 艺术、历史和科技的融合
    香港故宫的展馆中有这样一处名为《梦境》的装置——一组仿照清朝家具制作的环形沙发,可供12人躺下,仰视投射在天花板上的直径五米宽的圆形影像。影像的内容来自乾隆写给亡妻富察皇后的一首诗《大行皇后挽诗》,配以粤语和普通话朗读,带观众一起潜入乾隆思念发妻的梦境。

 

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